Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026?
Current price
5.5¢
+1.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 5.5%
$38K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The criteria for what constitutes a meeting are clearly defined, requiring in-person interaction such as a direct conversation, exchange of words, or handshake, while explicitly excluding mere co-presence in the same room or proximity without engagement. The market has a precise deadline of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The primary risk factor is the lack of a named official source, leaving the determination of whether an interaction met the qualifying threshold to the decider's interpretation of a consensus across credible media reporting.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vladimir Putin meets with Volodymyr Zelenskyy between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Zelenskyy and Putin are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy will have a direct, in-person meeting by December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Vladimir Putin meets in person with Volodymyr Zelenskyy between market creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying meeting requires direct personal interaction such as a handshake, exchange of words, or conversation, while merely sharing a room, being in proximity, or making eye contact does not qualify. The market resolves to No if no such in-person meeting takes place by the deadline. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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