Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?
Current price
89.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 89.5%
$128.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define what qualifies an individual as Prime Minister, specifically requiring official appointment by the British Monarch and explicitly counting Keir Starmer as the first individual. The criteria specify that individuals are counted uniquely regardless of multiple stints and exclude caretaker or interim roles. The primary source is official UK government information, backed by credible reporting, and the end date of December 31, 2027, provides a definitive resolution boundary.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the number of unique individuals who officially hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at any point between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on the number of unique individuals to hold the position. For example, if an individual is appointed twice within the specified timeframe, they will only count once for resolution. To count for resolution, an individual must have been officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. An individual’s time of appointment will have no bearing on this market so long as the individual officially serves as Prime Minister within the specified timeframe. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market For clarity, Keir Starmer will count as one Prime Minister for the purposes of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether exactly two unique individuals officially serve as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom between market creation and December 31, 2027. Resolution depends strictly on unique individuals officially appointed by the Monarch, excluding interim or caretaker appointees.
How it resolves
The market resolves based on the total count of unique individuals who officially hold the office of UK Prime Minister between market creation and December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. To count toward the total, an individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Keir Starmer counts as one Prime Minister. If an individual is appointed multiple times during the timeframe, they are counted only once. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers do not count. The primary resolution source is official information from the Government of the United Kingdom, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- Market resolution cutoff: — 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of the United Kingdom, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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