Will Harry Kane finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Current price
97.1¢
−0.4¢ · 24h
Implied probability 97.1%
$135.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the conditions for resolution, requiring a finish in positions 1 through 3 in the official final ranking for the men's 2026 award. A definitive fallback to resolve as No is provided if the ceremony is canceled or results are not published by December 31, 2026. The resolution relies primarily on the official announcement website, leaving very little room for ambiguity or dispute.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Harry Kane officially finishes in the top 3 (positions 1 through 3) of the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or final ranking. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the 2026 Ballon d'Or is canceled or a final ranking has not been published by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be the official Ballon d'Or announcement (https://www.ballondor.com/). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Harry Kane will achieve a top 3 finish in the official final ranking for the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Harry Kane officially finishes in positions 1 through 3 of the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or final ranking. The market resolves to No if he does not finish in the top 3, if the 2026 Ballon d'Or is canceled, or if a final ranking is not published by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source is the official Ballon d'Or announcement, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- Ranking publication deadline: — Market resolves to No if rankings are not published by 11:59 PM ET on this date
Resolution source
The official Ballon d'Or announcement, with a consensus of credible reporting as a secondary source
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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