AR-02 House Election Winner
2 live outcomes · highest priced: French Hill (R) at 83% · first close Nov 4, 2026 · $41.8K total volume
About this event
This event tracks the outcome of the 2026 election for Arkansas's 2nd congressional district (AR-02) in the U.S. House of Representatives. Markets measure which political party or associated candidate will win the congressional seat.
How the outcomes relate
The event consists of distinct markets corresponding to competing political parties or candidates for the single AR-02 congressional seat. Because only one candidate wins the seat, only one market representing the winning party can resolve Yes, while all other alternatives resolve No.
How it resolves
Each market resolves to Yes if a candidate affiliated with the specified political party wins the AR-02 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections; otherwise, it resolves to No. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing or identifiable affiliation when all 2026 House races are conclusively called, or by expressed intent to caucus for candidates lacking a major-party ballot affiliation. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the fallback source if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Date on which the midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| French Hill (R) | 83% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| Chris Jones (D) | 18% | ±0 | Low | High |