Will the Democratic Party win the OR-02 House seat?
Current price
4¢
−0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4%
$17.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on the winning party for the OR-02 congressional seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting without specifying which outlets constitute the consensus, though the Federal Election Commission is explicitly named as an official fallback in the event of ambiguity. Clear provisions are included for determining party affiliation, including rules for non-major-party candidates based on their stated caucus intent at the time all House races are called.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party will win the Oregon's 2nd Congressional District U.S. House of Representatives seat in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the OR-02 congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party. For candidates without a ballot-listed Democratic or Republican affiliation, affiliation is determined by the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is not affiliated with the Democratic Party. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Federal Election Commission if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The date the 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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