Will the Republican Party win the VA-02 House seat?
Current price
10.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 10.5%
$34.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market follows the standard outcome of the 2026 midterm election for Virginia's 2nd Congressional District. The rules clearly define party affiliation through ballot designation or stated caucus intent if unaffiliated. Primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible media reporting, which introduces some judgment in identifying consensus, but an official fallback to Federal Election Commission certified results provides an objective backstop if reporting is disputed or ambiguous. Outcome criteria directly align with standard expectations for an election market.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party wins the VA-02 House seat in the 2026 US midterm elections, with resolution based on the winning candidate's party affiliation at the time all House elections are called.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Republican Party wins the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves No if a party other than the Republican Party wins the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called by the resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties is considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all House elections are conclusively called. The market resolves based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, the market resolves based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- Midterm Election Date:
Resolution source
Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
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