Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?
4 live outcomes · highest priced: No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate at 61% · first close Nov 4, 2026 · $142.3K total volume
About this event
This event tracks combined scenarios involving whether a Hormuz agreement occurs, whether oil prices fall below $80 before the midterms, and which political party wins control of the Senate.
How the outcomes relate
The event is structured as a set of conditional political and geopolitical outcome combinations based on oil price thresholds, a Hormuz agreement, and the party controlling the Senate. The supplied rules do not establish whether more than one market can resolve Yes or whether at most one can.
How it resolves
The markets resolve based on whether specific combinations of conditions occur (a Hormuz agreement, oil falling below $80 before the midterms, and the specified party winning the Senate). Specific resolution criteria, thresholds, and decision sources are detailed in an external rules document referenced in the market text.
Resolution source
No resolution source is identified in this explainer.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate | 61% | ±0 | Can't assess | High | |
| No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate | 34% | ±0 | Can't assess | High | |
| Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate | 3% | ±0 | Can't assess | High | |
| Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate | 2% | ±0 | Can't assess | High |