Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?
Current price
0.35¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.35%
$232.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly specifies the metric to track (the upper bound of the target federal funds rate) and the exact observation window beginning December 16, 2025 through the completion of the October 2026 FOMC meeting. It explicitly clarifies that unscheduled emergency rate cuts count toward a positive resolution, and provides a fixed deadline (November 7, 2026) in case the October meeting is postponed. The primary resolution source is the official Federal Reserve website, though the rules permit relying on a consensus of credible reporting as a secondary option.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for October 2026, currently scheduled for October 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no October meeting takes place by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve reduces the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between December 16, 2025, and the conclusion of the October 2026 FOMC meeting.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025, and the completion of the October 2026 FOMC meeting. Emergency rate cuts during this window qualify for a Yes resolution. The market resolves to No if no qualifying rate cut takes place by the end of the meeting, or if no October meeting occurs by November 7, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET without a prior rate cut. The official website of the Federal Reserve serves as the primary resolution source, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- Measurement period begins: — Start of the window to monitor for federal funds rate cuts
- October 2026 FOMC meeting: — Meeting scheduled for October 27–28, 2026
- Meeting cutoff deadline: — Deadline at 11:59 PM ET if no October meeting takes place
Resolution source
Federal Reserve official website, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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