Will the Democratic Party win the NC-09 House seat?
Current price
19¢
+0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 19%
$16.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the party of the candidate winning the 2026 North Carolina 9th congressional district election. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is determined, including specific provisions for independent candidates based on caucus intent. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible media reporting, but provides a definitive official fallback to the Federal Election Commission if reporting is contested or ambiguous.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a Democratic candidate wins the North Carolina 9th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the NC-09 seat is affiliated with the Democratic Party. Candidates without a ballot-listed party affiliation count as Democrats if they most recently expressed an intent to caucus with the Democratic Party by the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate belongs to or intends to caucus with the Republican Party or otherwise fails to meet the Democratic criteria. Outcome determination is made based on a consensus of credible reporting, or solely on official results from the Federal Election Commission if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm elections: — Date when the midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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