Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?
Current price
4.25¢
+0.4¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.25%
$1.1M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define how resolution is measured, specifying the exact URL, calendar view, and column to consult on Box Office Mojo. They also explicitly clarify that only domestic calendar gross within the 2026 calendar year counts, avoiding common confusion between worldwide totals and full theatrical runs. Clear tie-breaking mechanics and a definite fallback deadline in early January 2027 provide robust coverage with minimal decider discretion.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether 'Avengers: Doomsday' achieves the highest domestic calendar gross of 2026. Resolution is restricted strictly to domestic earnings within calendar year 2026, disregarding any box office revenue generated outside that year.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if 'Avengers: Doomsday' finishes with the highest 2026 domestic calendar gross according to Box Office Mojo once December 31 data is published. The market resolves No if any other film has the highest gross. Only domestic calendar earnings from 2026 count toward the total, and dates outside 2026 are excluded. In the event of an exact tie for highest gross, the film that comes first alphabetically wins. Box Office Mojo serves as the primary resolution source. If final data is unavailable by January 7, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be selected.
Key dates
- End of calendar gross tracking: — Data through this date determines the 2026 calendar gross.
- Data availability deadline: — At 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen if final data is not available.
Resolution source
Box Office Mojo
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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