Modi out by December 31, 2026?
Current price
3.55¢
+0.2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.55%
$399K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves to Yes if Narendra Modi leaves office or is effectively incapacitated before December 31, 2026. Note that an announcement of resignation or removal triggers immediate early Yes resolution, even if the actual departure date falls after the market deadline or later in the term. Resolution relies on official Indian government announcements or a consensus of credible reporting if official sources are unavailable.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Narendra Modi ceases to be Prime Minister of India for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Narendra Modi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Narendra Modi and the government of India; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Narendra Modi ceases to be the Prime Minister of India by December 31, 2026. A notable aspect of the resolution is that an announcement of his resignation or removal triggers an immediate Yes resolution, even if the effective date of the departure falls later.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Narendra Modi ceases to be Prime Minister of India for any period between market creation and December 31, 2026 (ET). It also resolves to Yes immediately upon an announcement of his resignation or removal before the market end date, regardless of when it takes effect. Furthermore, if he is detained, effectively removed, or permanently prevented from fulfilling his duties within the timeframe, the market resolves to Yes. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Resolution is decided using official information from Narendra Modi and the government of India, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline by which Modi must cease being Prime Minister or have his resignation announced.
Resolution source
Official information from Narendra Modi and the government of India, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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