US recession by end of 2026?
Current price
7¢
+0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 7%
$2.3M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market establishes clear, objective criteria relying on authoritative official sources: the Bureau of Economic Analysis real GDP data and formal announcements from the National Bureau of Economic Research. The rules explicitly define what qualifies as a recession for resolution purposes (two consecutive negative quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 or a formal NBER declaration) and clarify that initial advance estimates count upon release. The timeline is tied directly to the publication of the advance estimate for Q4 2026 in early 2027, removing ambiguity about data revision schedules or market closure. Discretion is minimal because resolution is governed strictly by published government statistics and official committee statements.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. This market will remain open until either i) one of the specified conditions is met; or ii) the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 is released. If the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 has not been released by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available releases at that time. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the United States experiences a recession across 2025 and 2026. It is unusual in that it defines resolution through either an official NBER declaration or a technical benchmark of two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth.
How it resolves
This market resolves to Yes if the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports two consecutive quarters of negative seasonally adjusted annualized real GDP growth between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 inclusive, with advance estimates being considered. It also resolves to Yes if the National Bureau of Economic Research publicly announces a recession occurring at any point in 2025 or 2026, provided the announcement is made by the release of the Q4 2026 advance estimate. This market resolves to No if neither condition is satisfied. The deciding sources are the National Bureau of Economic Research and the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Key dates
- Observation period end check: — If the latest estimate for Q3 2026 is negative on this date, the market remains open until the Q4 2026 advance estimate is published.
Resolution source
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
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