Will the Democratic Party win the WI-01 House seat?
Current price
38.5¢
+1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 38.5%
$10K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the winning party of Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District in the 2026 midterms. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is determined, including how independents or candidates without a standard ballot line are handled based on their stated intent to caucus. Resolution initially relies on a consensus of credible reporting to determine when all House races are called, but includes a definitive fallback to official Federal Election Commission certified data if reporting is ambiguous. Timing risks are minimal, and there are no unusual early-exit or unexpected tie-breaking clauses.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party will win the Wisconsin's 1st congressional district (WI-01) seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a Democratic candidate wins the WI-01 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves to No if a candidate from another party wins. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation, or by their most recently expressed caucus intent if not affiliated with the Democrats or Republicans on the ballot, evaluated when all 2026 House races are called. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission results serving as the sole authority if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Election day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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