Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December?
Current price
1.75¢
+0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.75%
$76.2K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules clearly specify an objective benchmark: the daily official settlement price published by CME Group for the active front-month Gold contract through the final trading day of December 2026. However, participants should note a significant mismatch between the question title and the text: despite the title referencing an intraday high, the rules strictly exclude all intraday highs, lows, and traded prices, counting only the official end-of-day settlement figure. Additionally, the market resolves based on the settlement price as first published, explicitly ignoring any subsequent official revisions or corrections.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of December 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures. If the official settlement price for any relevant trading day has not been published on the CME Group website within 72 hours of the final trading day (ET) of the specified period, the market will resolve based on the settlement prices published through all CME channels up to that point.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures reaches or exceeds $8,000 by the final trading day of December 2026. Resolution relies strictly on first-published daily settlement prices, disregarding intraday price movements.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above $8,000 on any trading day by the final trading day of December 2026. Only the first-published settlement price on the CME settlement page counts, ignoring later corrections, intraday highs, lows, trades, bids, offers, or indicative values. The market resolves to No if this threshold is not met by the deadline. The deciding source is the CME Group website's daily settlement price for the Active Month. If the settlement price is not published on the website within 72 hours of the final trading day, resolution uses settlement prices published across all CME channels up to that point.
Key dates
- Final trading day of December 2026: — Deadline by which Gold GC futures must meet or exceed the $8,000 settlement price
Resolution source
CME Group website
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