Will the Republican Party win the WI-01 House seat?
Current price
62¢
−0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 62%
$8.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly defines the event, targeted district, and election year. The criteria for determining party affiliation are spelled out, including how to handle independent or third-party candidates via stated caucus intent. Resolution relies initially on a consensus of credible reporting, which involves some discretion, but the rules provide a definitive fallback to official Federal Election Commission reporting if any ambiguity arises.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party wins the Wisconsin's 1st congressional district (WI-01) U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the candidate winning the WI-01 House seat is affiliated with the Republican Party, determined by ballot listing or expressed intent to caucus when all 2026 House races are called. The market resolves to No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins the seat. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the definitive source if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Midterm elections: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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