EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by...?
Change in points, 24hView event →
June 30, 2027 · 7 daysRange 7–9%
Geopolitics markets
266 live Polymarket markets in 133 eventsHide Low tradability133 cards · 266 markets
- LowGotcha
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGHResolver2.65¢+0.2¢ 7d7 daysRange 2.45–2.65¢ - MedGotcha
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 MEDIUMResolverExceptions1.5¢−0.95¢ 7d7 daysRange 1.1–2.7¢ - LowGotcha
Will Alberta join the US?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMResolver1.8¢+0.65¢ 7d7 daysRange 1.05–3.6¢ - MedGotcha
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by October 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverWording2.85¢+2.2¢ since 00:56 UTCSince 00:56 UTCRange 0.65–4¢ - MedGotcha
US x China Military clash before 2027?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverWording2.5¢−0.05¢ 7d7 daysRange 2.4–2.85¢ - MedGotcha
Iran Nuke before 2027?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverWording3.05¢−0.2¢ 7d7 daysRange 2.95–4.45¢ - MedGotcha
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverWording3.6¢+0.55¢ 7d7 daysRange 3–3.6¢ - MedGotcha
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverWording7¢±0¢ since Oct 18Since Oct 18Range 7–7.5¢ - MedGotcha
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverWording15.5¢±0¢ 7d7 daysRange 15.5–19¢ - MedGotcha
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverWording5¢−0.5¢ 7d7 daysRange 4–6¢ - MedGotcha
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverWording22.5¢−1¢ 7d7 daysRange 22.5–25¢ - LowGotcha
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMResolver4.5¢±0¢ 7d7 daysFlat at 4.5¢ - MedGotcha
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverWording2.75¢−0.4¢ 7d7 daysRange 2.45–3.15¢ - MedGotcha
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverWording2.4¢+0.85¢ 7d7 daysRange 1.5–2.95¢ - LowGotcha
NATO dissolves before 2027?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 MEDIUMResolverExceptions1.3¢−0.15¢ 7d7 daysRange 1.2–1.45¢ - LowGotcha
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 MEDIUMResolverExceptions2.8¢−0.25¢ 7d7 daysRange 2.65–4.2¢ - MedGotcha
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by December 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 MEDIUMResolverWording3.3¢−1.15¢ 7d7 daysRange 3.05–4.45¢ - LowGotcha
Will Iran legalize gay marriage?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGHResolver1.9¢+0.05¢ 7d7 daysRange 1.85–2.2¢ - LowGotcha
UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMResolver4.55¢+1.1¢ 7d7 daysRange 3.45–5.8¢ - LowGotcha
UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMResolver5.6¢±0¢ 7d7 daysRange 5.55–5.6¢ - MedGotcha
Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by December 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGHResolver95.9¢+0.8¢ since Oct 16Since Oct 16Range 95.1–97.55¢ - MedGotcha
Russia coup attempt in 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 2 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions3¢−0.45¢ 7d7 daysRange 3–3.5¢ - LowGotcha
Will Cuba recognize Israel by December 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMResolver3.35¢±0¢ 7d7 daysFlat at 3.35¢ - MedGotcha
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGHResolver2.25¢−0.1¢ 7d7 daysRange 2.1–2.35¢ - MedGotcha
US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverExceptions4.05¢+0.45¢ 7d7 daysRange 3.45–4.3¢ - MedGotcha
Iran invades Kuwait by October 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 HIGH · 2 MEDIUMResolverExceptionsTiming+11¢+0.25¢ 7d7 daysRange 0.75–2.75¢ - LowGotcha
NATO article 5 before 2027?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 MEDIUMResolverExceptions4.65¢−0.75¢ 7d7 daysRange 4.55–5.45¢ - LowGotcha
Yoon out of custody before 2027?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMResolver5.45¢+0.6¢ 7d7 daysRange 4.75–5.95¢ - MedGotcha
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by December 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGHResolver2.7¢−0.25¢ 7d7 daysRange 2.7–3.15¢ - MedGotcha
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverWording2.85¢±0¢ 7d7 daysRange 2.75–2.9¢ - LowGotcha
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
No resolution risks flagged4 checks1.45¢−0.05¢ 7d7 daysRange 1.4–1.5¢ - MedGotcha
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGHResolver5.4¢+2¢ 7d7 daysRange 3.35–6.7¢ - MedGotcha
China coup attempt before 2027?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 2 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions3.75¢−0.05¢ 7d7 daysRange 3.45–4.15¢ - MedGotcha
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 3 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions2.85¢+0.4¢ 7d7 daysRange 2.3–3.05¢ - MedGotcha
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 MEDIUMResolverExceptions5¢−0.5¢ 7d7 daysRange 4–6¢ - MedGotcha
EU dissolves before 2027?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 MEDIUMResolverExceptions1.75¢+0.6¢ 7d7 daysRange 1.15–2.8¢