Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2026?
Last captured price
78¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 78%
$24.6K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The definition of a meeting requires both individuals to be present and interact in person, which broadly includes brief hallway greetings, photo ops, or multilateral summit interactions in addition to formal bilateral talks. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official schedule or government readout, leaving the decider to evaluate journalistic accounts of whether an in-person interaction took place. The evaluation window covers the full calendar year of 2026 without unusual early settlement clauses.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between January 1, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Donald Trump and Mohammed bin Salman have an in-person meeting during the calendar year 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Mohammed bin Salman meets with Donald Trump between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying meeting requires both individuals to be present and interact with each other in person. The market resolves to No if no such in-person meeting occurs within this timeframe. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Start date: — Beginning of the tracking period for the meeting.
- End date: — End of the tracking period at 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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