Will Israel strike 15 or more countries in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting or official Israeli acknowledgement rather than an official global registry, leaving room for subjective interpretation regarding covert or disputed military actions.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting or official Israeli acknowledgement rather than an official global registry, leaving room for subjective interpretation regarding covert or disputed military actions. The rules contain specific inclusions and exclusions to be aware of: strikes within the West Bank, Gaza, and territory controlled by Israel as of year-end 2025 are excluded, as are intercepted munitions, surface-to-air missile strikes, artillery, direct ATGM or FPV drone use, naval shelling, and ground operative actions. Additionally, qualifying strikes on embassies or consulates count toward the host nation rather than the represented nation.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Israeli forces initiate qualifying aerial, drone, or missile strikes impacting the soil of 15 or more different countries in 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Israel initiates strikes impacting the ground territory of 15 or more distinct countries between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026. Qualifying strikes are aerial bombs, drones, or cruise/ballistic missiles launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground and are officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or credible reporting. Embassies and consulates count toward their host country. Strikes do not qualify if they occur in Israeli-controlled territory as of December 31, 2025, the West Bank, or the Gaza Strip. Intercepted projectiles, surface-to-air missiles, artillery, small arms, direct FPV/ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, and ground operative actions are excluded. The market resolves No if the total is fewer than 15 countries. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·