Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
Current price
81.5¢
−1.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 81.5%
$844.1K total volume · YES/NO
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
Although the text lists specific trigger events for market resolution, it fails to identify any resolution source, data provider, or decider to determine whether these criteria have been satisfied. Furthermore, the complete defining terms and verification sources are deferred to an external document that is not contained within the provided text.
Cannot assess: The resolution rules do not identify a resolution source. (no_resolution_source)
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET: - Trump out as President - China invades Taiwan - Xi Jinping out - U.S. invades Iran - Iranian regime falls - Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’ - Jeffrey Epstein alive - Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate - Russia invades a NATO country - Trump acquires Greenland - 9.0 or above earthquake - Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) - Major meteor strike (250kt+) Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether none of a specific list of major global, political, economic, or natural events occur through 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if none of the specified major trigger events occur before the cutoff time. The market resolves to No if any of the listed conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET: Donald Trump leaves office as President, China invades Taiwan, Xi Jinping leaves office, the United States invades Iran, the Iranian regime falls, Bitcoin reaches 1 million dollars or drops to 10 thousand dollars, Jeffrey Epstein is found alive, Republicans achieve a trifecta with a Senate supermajority, Russia invades a NATO country, Donald Trump acquires Greenland, an earthquake of magnitude 9.0 or higher occurs, a volcanic eruption with a VEI of 6 or higher occurs, or a meteor strike of 250 kilotons or greater occurs.
Key dates
- End date: — Resolution cutoff time
Resolution source
No resolution source is identified in this explainer.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.