US takes Panama Canal before 2027?
Current price
2.8¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.8%
$178.1K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The question asks if the US takes the canal, but the rules include an exception where an official announcement of a future transfer of control qualifies for a positive resolution even if the actual physical transfer has not yet occurred. There is also slight ambiguity regarding whether an announcement must come jointly from both governments or if one suffices, as well as a mismatch in terminology between defining control as primary operational authority versus credible reporting confirming US sovereignty. Official government releases are the primary sources, backed by a consensus of credible reporting if needed.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Panama Canal comes under US control by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, US control means the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal, either via diplomatic agreement, military action, or any other means. An official announcement made by the United States and Panama that the Panama Canal will come under US control will qualify, even if the actual transfer of control is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Panama Canal has come under US sovereignty will also qualify.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the United States assumes primary operational authority over the Panama Canal before 2027. Notably, an official joint announcement of a future transfer qualifies as Yes even if the physical transfer has not yet occurred.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Panama Canal comes under US control by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. US control requires the United States to assume primary operational authority via diplomatic agreement, military action, or other means. An official announcement by both the US and Panama of a future transfer qualifies if made via official agreements or actions like executive orders or signed legislation, but social media posts do not count. The market resolves to No if these conditions are not met by the deadline. The resolution is determined by official information from the US and Panamanian governments, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming US sovereignty.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline by which US control or an official agreement must occur.
Resolution source
Official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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