Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by...?
2 live outcomes · highest priced: December 31, 2027 at 41% (+4 pts in 24h) · first close Jan 1, 2027 · $3.1M total volume
About this event
This event tracks whether Ukraine signs a qualifying peace deal, ceasefire, or framework agreement with the Russian Federation by specified future deadlines.
How the outcomes relate
The event consists of multiple target deadlines structured chronologically. Because an agreement signed before an earlier cutoff date also satisfies all subsequent deadlines, more than one market in this event can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
A market resolves to Yes if Ukraine signs a written instrument including both Ukraine and Russia that either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war before the specified deadline (11:59 PM ET). Only Ukraine's wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature is required; Russia's signature or ratification is not. Unsigned agreements, localized or issue-specific arrangements, humanitarian pauses, and sector-specific ceasefires do not qualify. If no qualifying agreement is signed by the deadline, the market resolves to No.
Key dates
- December 31, 2026 deadline: — 11:59 PM ET
- December 31, 2027 deadline: — 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 41% | ▲ 4 | Med | Med | |
| December 31, 2026 | 8% | ▲ 2 | Med | High | |
| June 30, 2027 | — | — | Not rated | — |