3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules establish specific criteria defining what qualifies as a peace deal, including broad written instruments, roadmaps, and armistices.
The rules establish specific criteria defining what qualifies as a peace deal, including broad written instruments, roadmaps, and armistices. However, there is notable potential for surprise because only Ukraine's signature is required rather than a bilateral execution, meaning an instrument signed only by Ukraine could trigger a positive resolution even if Russia never signs or ratifies it. Additionally, differentiating a qualifying framework agreement from excluded localized or issue-specific arrangements leaves room for interpretation. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single named registry or official legal repository, giving the resolving entity substantial latitude in evaluating whether a signed document meets the structural requirements.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
41%
chance▲ +2 pts · 24h
The price rose from 39% to 51%, but there is insufficient evidence to identify a likely driver for the move.
News check pending.
A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.
AI-generated · 12 Nov 2026, 13:50 UTC
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not. Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify. The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market measures whether Ukraine signs a qualifying written peace agreement or framework with Russia by December 31, 2027. Notably, only Ukraine's authorized signature is required for resolution, not Russia's signature or ratification.
The market resolves to Yes if an authorized Ukrainian representative officially signs a written instrument with Russia as a party that ends hostilities, establishes a ceasefire, or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The document requires a wet-ink or official electronic signature from Ukraine; Russian signature or ratification is not required. Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements (such as humanitarian pauses, prisoner swaps, trade deals, or sector-specific ceasefires) and unsigned agreements do not qualify. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·