Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Current price
6.5¢
+1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 6.5%
$440.2K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market hinges on Saudi Arabia signing a formal normalization pact with Israel that is explicitly linked to the Abraham Accords framework. The primary ambiguity is whether a separate or bilateral normalization treaty that does not adopt the specific Abraham Accords branding would qualify as a continuation of the accords. For resolution, the rules look first to official government statements from both nations, but also allow deciders to rely on a consensus of credible reporting if official statements leave ambiguity. The deadline is clearly set for December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Saudi Arabia will formally enter into a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords before the end of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Saudi Arabia formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. To qualify, the signing must be an official agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. The market resolves to No if no such qualifying agreement is signed by the deadline. The resolution is determined using official government statements, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline for Saudi Arabia to formally sign the normalization agreement
Resolution source
Official government statements, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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