Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Current price
1.7¢
−0.85¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.7%
$2.3M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market explicitly disconnects resolution from formal constitutional titles, official appointment, or international recognition, resolving instead on who exercises de facto governing authority and control over security forces and institutions at the snapshot time of December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Because no official registry or constitutional declaration is used as the deciding source, resolution relies on an evaluator judging a consensus of credible reporting to determine who held real power. If power is fragmented or contested during a leadership transition, this de facto standard introduces substantial judgement about effective control.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Alireza Arafi de facto holds and exercises the powers of head of state of Iran on December 31, 2026. Resolution is based on effective domestic governing authority regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Alireza Arafi demonstrably exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decisions. Formal appointment or international recognition is not required, while symbolic status, nomination without effective authority, foreign recognition without domestic control, and expired prior service do not qualify. The market resolves No if another individual holds this de facto authority. It resolves to "No Head of State" if no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time. Resolution will be determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Evaluation timestamp: — The market assesses who holds de facto authority on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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