Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31?
Current price
2.25¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.25%
$65.1K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly establish what qualifies as a meeting, explicitly requiring direct personal interaction such as a handshake or conversation rather than mere presence in the same room. The main risk stems from resolution relying entirely on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official record or specific authoritative source. For high-stakes geopolitical figures where interactions might be brief, disputed, or unconfirmed, determining whether credible reporting establishes that a direct interaction occurred leaves room for interpretation by the decider.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both specified individuals are present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Donald Trump and Mojtaba Khamenei have an in-person meeting by December 31.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump and Mojtaba Khamenei meet between market creation and December 31 at 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying meeting requires both individuals to be present and engage in a direct personal interaction, such as an exchange of words, a handshake, or a direct conversation. Merely being in proximity, making eye contact, or attending the same event without direct interaction does not qualify. The market resolves to No if no such meeting occurs by the deadline. A consensus of credible reporting decides the outcome.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: December 31 at 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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