Iran leader end of 2026?
30 live outcomes · highest priced: Mojtaba Khamenei at 87% · first close Dec 31, 2026 · $40M total volume
About this event
This event tracks who will serve as the de facto head of state of Iran at the end of 2026. Markets measure specific named candidates as well as the possibility that no single individual exercises effective governing control over the country.
How the outcomes relate
The event consists of mutually exclusive outcomes representing distinct individuals or the condition of having no head of state. Because the rules specify resolving to the single individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control, or to 'No Head of State' if no one does, at most one market can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
Each market resolves based on who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. A candidate resolves Yes if they exercise primary governing authority, including control over armed forces, executive institutions, and core infrastructure, regardless of formal title or foreign recognition. If multiple individuals claim authority, resolution goes to whoever demonstrably exercises primary domestic control. If no individual exercises effective governing control, the 'No Head of State' market resolves Yes.
Key dates
- Assessment Date and Time: — Target timestamp of 12:00 PM ET for determining de facto governing authority.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mojtaba Khamenei | 87% | ±0 | Med | High | |
| No Head of State | 4% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| Reza Pahlavi | 3% | ±0 | Med | High | |
| Alireza Arafi | 2% | ▼ 1 | Med | Med | |
| Hassan Rouhani | 1% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| Abbas Araghchi | <1% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| Maryam Rajavi | <1% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| Masoud Pezeshkian | <1% | ±0 | High | Med | |
| Ahmad Vahidi | <1% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf | <1% | ±0 | High | Med | |
| Hassan Khomeini | <1% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| Mahmoud Ahmadinejad | <1% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| Muhammad Mirbaqiri | <1% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| Sadegh Larijani | <1% | ±0 | High | Med | |
| Hassan Shariatmadari | <1% | ±0 | Med | Low | |
| Massoud Rajavi | <1% | ±0 | Med | Low | |
| Seyed Hossein Mousavian | <1% | ±0 | Med | Low | |
| Reza Pirzadeh | <1% | ±0 | Med | Low | |
| Navid Shomali | <1% | ±0 | Med | Low | |
| Mustafa Hijri | <1% | ±0 | Med | Low | |
| Ali Motahari | <1% | ±0 | High | Low | |
| Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel | <1% | ±0 | Med | Low | |
| Mostafa Pourmohammadi | <1% | ±0 | Med | Low | |
| Sadegh Mahsouli | <1% | ±0 | High | Low | |
| Saeed Jalili | <1% | ±0 | Med | Low | |
| Mohammad Khatami | <1% | ±0 | Med | Low | |
| Mohsen Araki | <1% | ±0 | Med | Low | |
| Nasir Hosseini | <1% | ±0 | Med | Low | |
| Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani | <1% | ±0 | Med | Low | |
| Ali Asghar Hejazi | <1% | ±0 | Med | Low |