Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?
Current price
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Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on the first listed leader to permanently leave their office before the December 31, 2026 deadline, resolving to a specific fallback option if none depart by then. Determining the outcome relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single official government register. Position holders should note strict exclusionary clauses: announcements of pending resignations or upcoming departures from scheduled elections do not trigger resolution until the departure is finalized. Furthermore, temporary removals, constitutional suspensions, and continuing to serve in an interim or caretaker capacity do not count as leaving office.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Friedrich Merz is the first among a specified list of leaders to permanently cease occupying his listed office before 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes for Friedrich Merz if he is the first listed individual to permanently cease occupying his listed office before the deadline. Mere announcements of resignation, scheduled departures, temporary removals (such as impeachment suspensions or temporary 25th Amendment invocations), and continuing in a caretaker or interim capacity do not count as leaving office. The market resolves No if another listed leader permanently leaves office first. It resolves to "None before 2027" if no listed individual meets the criteria by the deadline. A consensus of credible reporting decides the resolution.
Key dates
- Market end date: — Deadline for any listed individual to permanently leave office.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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