Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
Current price
3¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3%
$257.5K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market requires the U.S. to commence a military offensive intended to establish control over Venezuelan territory within a specific window starting November 3, 2025. Determining whether a military action constitutes an offensive 'intended to establish control' rather than a targeted strike, blockade, or counter-narcotics operation requires subjective interpretation of intent. Furthermore, resolution relies entirely on a consensus of credible sources without specifying primary authorities or official government declarations, leaving final judgment to whoever assesses the media consensus.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the United States initiates a military offensive to gain control of Venezuelan territory by December 31, 2026. Territory is defined based on de facto control as of September 6, 2025.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. For this evaluation, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the U.S. as of September 6, 2025, at 12:00 PM ET, is treated as sovereign territory of that country. The market resolves to No if no such offensive commences within the specified timeframe. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible sources.
Key dates
- Baseline de facto control date: — Determines what land is considered sovereign territory of each country
- Start of qualifying window: — Earliest date for a qualifying offensive to commence
- End of qualifying window: — Latest time for a qualifying offensive to commence
Resolution source
A consensus of credible sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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