Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting or official Israeli acknowledgment rather than a specific official registry.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting or official Israeli acknowledgment rather than a specific official registry. Determining whether an event qualifies involves verifying technical details such as whether a projectile was an aerial bomb, drone, or missile versus naval shelling or artillery, and confirming whether munitions impacted ground territory rather than being intercepted mid-air. The rules also establish specific geographical exclusions, carving out the West Bank, Gaza, and territory controlled by Israel as of the end of 2025, while assigning embassy strikes to the host country rather than the represented nation.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Last captured price
13%
chance▲ +4.9 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Israel initiates drone, missile, or air strikes on five or more different countries' soil during 2026, excluding strikes within Israeli-controlled territory, the West Bank, or Gaza.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Israel initiates drone, missile, or air strikes on five or more different countries' soil between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026. A qualifying strike is the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory. Strikes on embassies or consulates count towards the country where they are located. Strikes within territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, or within the West Bank or Gaza Strip, do not count. Missiles or drones that are intercepted, surface-to-air missile strikes, artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations by Israeli ground operatives do not qualify. The market resolves No if Israel initiates qualifying strikes on fewer than five different countries' soil during the specified period. Resolution will be determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·