Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?
Current price
4¢
−0.35¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4%
$1.2M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market relies on evaluating de facto governing authority rather than formal constitutional office or official titles. If a political crisis, leadership transition, or fragmented rule occurs, deciding whether a single individual exercises primary control over state institutions and armed forces involves significant qualitative judgement. The rules specify a precise evaluation timestamp on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET, but resolution depends on an undefined consensus of credible reporting rather than a designated official body or formal government declaration.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Iran will lack a de facto head of state at the end of 2026. Resolution is unusual because it relies on de facto governing authority and domestic institutional control rather than formal constitutional titles, official appointments, or foreign recognition.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if no individual demonstrably exercises effective governing control over Iran at the specified time. The market resolves No if any individual de facto holds and exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Control includes authority over armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decisions. Symbolic roles, foreign recognition without domestic control, and unexercised nominations do not qualify. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Determination time: — Head of state status is assessed as of 12:00 PM ET.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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