Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by...?
2 live outcomes · highest priced: June 30, 2027 at 7% · first close Jan 1, 2027 · $226.7K total volume
About this event
This event tracks whether Russia will militarily capture the entire Donetsk Oblast of Ukraine by specific target deadlines. Each market measures whether full territorial control over specified municipalities is shown on qualifying conflict maps before that market's deadline.
How the outcomes relate
The event is structured as a series of timeline thresholds. Because earlier capture implies capture prior to subsequent dates, multiple markets can resolve Yes if the conditions are met by an earlier deadline. Each market operates with its own specific resolution date.
How it resolves
A market resolves to Yes if Russia militarily captures all of Donetsk Oblast between market creation and the specified deadline at 11:59 PM ET. Capture requires that nine specific municipalities (Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Pokrovsk, Dobropillia, Oleksandrivka, Cherkaske, and Sviatohirsk) are simultaneously shaded under qualifying layers ('Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain' or 'Assessed Russian Advances') on the ISW map. The shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. Control gained via negotiated settlements does not qualify. If the conditions are not met by the specified date, the market resolves to No.
Key dates
- December 31, 2026 deadline: — 11:59 PM ET deadline for the December 31, 2026 market.
- June 30, 2027 deadline: — 11:59 PM ET deadline for the June 30, 2027 market.
Resolution source
ISW Ukraine map (with DeepStateMap or a consensus of credible reporting as fallbacks)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2027 | 7% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| December 31 | 1% | ±0 | Med | High |