Will Russia invade another country by December 31, 2027?
Last captured price
17¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 17%
$5.1K total volume · YES/NO
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Gotcha coverage has not been generated for this market.
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
Explainer coverage has not been generated for this market.
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.