Ukraine coup attempt by December 31, 2026?
Current price
6.1¢
−0.35¢ · 24h
Implied probability 6.1%
$153.2K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market title omits the year, though the detailed rules establish the end date as December 31, 2026. Resolution relies entirely on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official registry or named arbiter, requiring the resolver to evaluate whether media coverage reaches widespread consensus. The rules set specific boundaries that exclude general protests, non-state uprisings, and disrupted or foiled plots where arrests occur before execution begins. Distinguishing whether an event progressed to an actual attempted execution versus an interrupted conspiracy involves subjective judgment across news accounts.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a widely reported coup attempt takes place in Ukraine by December 31, 2026. Resolution is distinctive because it requires state or security actor involvement, excludes purely non-state unrest, and demands actual attempted execution along with credible independent reporting for foiled plots.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A coup attempt must be a coordinated, deliberate effort by military, security forces, or state actors to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state actors, isolated protests, or general unrest do not qualify. Government claims of foiled plots or arrests only qualify if credible independent sources widely report and characterize them as a coup attempt, and foiled plots without any attempted execution do not qualify. The market resolves to No if these conditions are not met by the deadline. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Market end date: — Deadline for a qualifying coup attempt to occur in Ukraine.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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