Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo
Gotcha risk
Not assessedCannot assess: The resolution rules do not identify a resolution source. (no_resolution_source)
Read the full assessment
While the text lists three required conditions regarding a ceasefire, NATO agreement, and peace deal, it specifies no resolution source, official authority, or reporting consensus to determine whether these events have occurred, instead deferring complete criteria to an external document.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance▼ −0.9 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - Russia x Ukraine ceasefire - Ukraine agrees not to join NATO - Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf
Market explained
This market measures whether three specific diplomatic milestones occur between Russia and Ukraine by the end of 2026. It is unusual because it operates as a combination market requiring all three distinct conditions to be met for a positive resolution.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if all three conditions occur by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET: a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, Ukraine agreeing not to join NATO, and Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia. The market resolves to No if any of these conditions are not met within the timeframe, or as soon as it is confirmed that at least one condition has not been met. The market remains open until resolution criteria are met. The rules refer to an external document for full resolution details.
Resolution source
No resolution source is identified in this explainer.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·