Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas by December 31, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide clear and specific criteria defining what constitutes ceding control, explicitly enumerating the five major cities that must be covered (Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk).
Read the full assessment
The rules provide clear and specific criteria defining what constitutes ceding control, explicitly enumerating the five major cities that must be covered (Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk). The conditions distinguish diplomatic agreements from pure military capture, clarify that de facto military withdrawal counts even without recognizing sovereignty changes, and state that the agreement locks in resolution regardless of effective implementation dates. The deadline is explicitly set to December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. While resolution relies on official announcements or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting rather than a single definitive registry, the detailed scope and explicit exclusions leave little room for ambiguity.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
3%
chance▲ +0.1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk. The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution. A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them. Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Market explained
This market measures whether Ukraine and the Russian Federation reach an agreement before 2027 where Ukraine cedes de facto control of its remaining major cities in Donbas.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a deal is reached by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under its control in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts (Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk). The agreement qualifies even if Ukraine maintains formal sovereignty claims, regardless of which entity replaces them, and regardless of when it takes effect, provided it occurs via diplomatic agreement rather than purely military capture. The market resolves to No if no qualifying agreement is reached by the deadline. Resolution is determined by official announcements from Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official announcements by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·