EVENT · 3 OUTCOMES
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
Change in points, 24hView event →
December 31 · 7 daysRange 28–40%
Geopolitics markets
267 live Polymarket markets in 134 eventsHide Low tradability134 cards · 267 markets
- MedGotcha
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverWording6.5¢+0.5¢ 7d7 daysRange 5.5–7.5¢ - MedGotcha
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGHResolver3.85¢−1.65¢ 7d7 daysRange 3.05–5.5¢ - MedGotcha
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 MEDIUMResolverExceptions6.5¢+1¢ 7d7 daysRange 5.5–7¢ - MedGotcha
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverExceptions95.5¢+16¢ 7d7 daysRange 79.5–95.5¢ - EVENT · 30 OUTCOMES
Iran leader end of 2026?
+25 more outcomesView event → - MedGotcha
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverWording6.5¢+2¢ 7d7 daysRange 4.5–10.5¢ - MedGotcha
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverWording2.4¢−0.25¢ 7d7 daysRange 2.35–2.9¢ - MedGotcha
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 2 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions24.5¢−3¢ 7d7 daysRange 22.5–29.5¢ - MedGotcha
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverWording4.5¢±0¢ 7d7 daysRange 4.5–7.5¢ - EVENT · 14 OUTCOMES
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
+9 more outcomesView event → - MedGotcha
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 2 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions5.5¢−2¢ 7d7 daysRange 5.5–7.5¢ - MedGotcha
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGHResolver3.15¢−0.15¢ 7d7 daysRange 3.15–3.55¢ - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)
Change in points, 24hView event →December 31 · Since Oct 14Range 24–27% - Can'tGotcha
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
No resolution source named83¢+3¢ 7d7 daysRange 79.5–83.5¢ - MedGotchaBIG MOVE · ▲ 15 PTS
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 MEDIUMResolverExceptions98.15¢+15.2¢ 7d7 daysRange 81.05–98.4¢ · explanation pending - MedGotcha
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 MEDIUMResolverWording5.15¢−18.7¢ 7d7 daysRange 4.35–25.35¢ - LowGotcha
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMResolver3.85¢−3.15¢ 7d7 daysRange 3.8–7.5¢ - LowGotcha
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMResolver6.2¢+0.55¢ 7d7 daysRange 4.35–6.35¢ - MedGotcha
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 3 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions2.1¢−1.25¢ 7d7 daysRange 2.05–4.65¢ - LowGotcha
Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by October 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMResolver1.3¢−0.7¢ 7d7 daysRange 1–3.85¢ - MedGotcha
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 MEDIUMResolverWording1.35¢−1.15¢ 7d7 daysRange 1.15–3.6¢ - LowGotcha
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMResolver31.5¢+2¢ 7d7 daysRange 27.5–33.5¢ - MedGotcha
Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverWording26¢+0.5¢ since Oct 16Since Oct 16Range 25.5–26.5¢ - MedGotchaBIG MOVE · ▼ 13 PTS
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverWording33.5¢+2¢ 24hWHY IT MOVED · NEWS“Zelenskiy Slams Trump's Russia Diesel Deal as Ukraine Peace Talks Stall”econotimes.com · 16 Oct - MedGotcha
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 MEDIUMResolverWording6.5¢+1¢ 7d7 daysRange 5.5–6.5¢ - LowGotcha
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMResolver4.95¢±0¢ 7d7 daysRange 4.65–5.3¢ - MedGotcha
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 23?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 2 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions75¢+19.5¢ 7d7 daysRange 55.5–79.5¢ - MedGotcha
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverExceptionsWording2.85¢−1.8¢ 7d7 daysRange 2.8–4.85¢ - LowGotcha
Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?
No resolution risks flagged4 checks59¢−0.5¢ 7d7 daysRange 52.5–61¢ - LowGotcha
Modi out by December 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 MEDIUMResolverExceptions3.55¢−0.85¢ 7d7 daysRange 3.1–5.3¢ - MedGotcha
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverWording3.75¢−1.5¢ 7d7 daysRange 3.6–5.25¢ - MedGotcha
Modi out by June 30, 2027?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 3 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions10.5¢−6¢ 7d7 daysRange 7.5–16.5¢ - MedGotcha
Will Venezuela become 51st state?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 2 MEDIUMExceptionsResolverWording2¢−0.05¢ 7d7 daysRange 1.95–2.25¢ - MedGotcha
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverWording3.15¢−0.35¢ 7d7 daysRange 2.45–3.85¢ - MedGotcha
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 2 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions6.5¢−2¢ 7d7 daysRange 6.5–8.5¢ - MedGotcha
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGHResolver6¢+1¢ 7d7 daysRange 4–6¢ - MedGotcha
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 2 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions7.5¢−1¢ 7d7 daysRange 7.5–8.5¢ - MedGotcha
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 2 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions4.2¢+0.4¢ 7d7 daysRange 3.45–5¢ - MedGotcha
Ukraine coup attempt by December 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 2 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions5.4¢+0.65¢ 7d7 daysRange 4.5–6.7¢ - LowGotcha
US military draft authorized in 2026?
No resolution risks flagged4 checks4¢+0.5¢ 7d7 daysRange 3.5–4.1¢ - MedGotcha
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 3 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions3.55¢±0¢ 7d7 daysRange 3.5–3.7¢ - LowGotcha
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?
No resolution risks flagged4 checks8.5¢±0¢ since Oct 14Since Oct 14Flat at 8.5¢ - LowGotcha
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGHResolver2.3¢−0.25¢ 7d7 daysRange 1.95–2.7¢ - MedGotcha
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverWording4.5¢−1¢ 7d7 daysRange 4.5–5.5¢ - MedGotcha
Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet by December 31, 2027?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverExceptions82.5¢±0¢ 7d7 daysFlat at 82.5¢ - HighGotcha
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMExceptionsResolver9.5¢+1.5¢ 7d7 daysRange 7.5–9.5¢ - MedGotcha
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 2 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions5.1¢+0.6¢ 7d7 daysRange 4.15–5.75¢