Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2027?
Current price
61.5¢
+1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 61.5%
$69.3K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on official announcements from both governments or a consensus of credible reporting. While the rules provide explicit boundaries—excluding unilateral pauses, local truces, or agreements that only limit specific target types—evaluating whether a complex diplomatic agreement constitutes a qualifying general pause with an explicit dated commitment to stop fighting requires subjective judgment. Additionally, an agreement finalized before the deadline qualifies even if the actual pause takes effect after the cutoff date.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Russia and Ukraine reach an officially announced or credibly confirmed general ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2027. Reaching an agreement before the deadline qualifies even if the ceasefire's effective date occurs after the deadline.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine is officially reached by October 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying agreements include peace deals, truces, or humanitarian pauses that constitute a general pause in the conflict with an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting. It resolves to Yes even if the ceasefire takes effect after the deadline. Agreements limited to specific locations or target categories, informal understandings, backchannel communications, de-escalation without an agreement, and unilateral pauses do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no such agreement is reached by the deadline. Official government announcements from Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting decide the outcome.
Key dates
- Market end date: — Ceasefire agreement must be reached by this time.
Resolution source
Official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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