Iran full airspace closure by December 31?
Current price
31.5¢
+1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 31.5%
$457.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide detailed criteria distinguishing qualifying general closures from partial or localized restrictions, supported by concrete historical examples of qualifying and non-qualifying incidents. Restrictions imposed by foreign entities or closures purely due to natural phenomena like weather or earthquakes are explicitly excluded. Resolution relies on Iranian aviation authority announcements and a consensus of credible reporting, which introduces a moderate degree of discretion in evaluating news reports if official notices are contested or unclear.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify. A closure which applies generally to commercial aviation across Iranian airspace, with limited exceptions for certain categories of flights, however, will qualify (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Qualifying previous examples include the February 28, 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602289115) and the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508), the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/), and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in Iran (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace (Tehran FIR) for commercial flights by December 31, excluding closures caused solely by weather or natural disasters.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace across all of Iran or the Tehran FIR between market creation and December 31 at 11:59 PM ET. The closure must apply generally to commercial flights, though limited exceptions such as pre-approved flights by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority still qualify. Closures solely due to weather, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions do not qualify. Partial closures, regional restrictions, VFR flight suspensions, and restrictions imposed by airlines or foreign countries also do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no qualifying general closure occurs by the deadline. Resolution is determined by official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Latest time for Iran to initiate a qualifying airspace closure.
Resolution source
Official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting
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