Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?
Current price
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Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on whether Mahmoud Abbas is the first among a designated set of leaders to permanently leave office before the end of 2026. The rules explicitly exclude mere announcements of departure, scheduled post-election departures, temporary impeachment suspensions, and caretaker or interim periods, meaning an official must fully vacate power to qualify. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single designated official gazette or institutional source, giving the resolver discretion to weigh news coverage regarding the precise nature and permanence of an exit.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Mahmoud Abbas permanently ceases to hold his office before 2027, with resolution based on the first individual among a list to do so.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Mahmoud Abbas is the first individual among those listed to permanently cease occupying his listed office before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A permanent removal from office qualifies; temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions or provisional transfers of power, do not count. An announcement of resignation or removal, or a scheduled departure due to an election outcome, does not alone qualify. If an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role, they are not considered to have ceased occupying the office. The market resolves to "None before 2027" if no listed individual meets the criteria by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Market close date: — If no individual meets the criteria by this date, the market resolves to "None before 2027".
Resolution source
a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
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