Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Current price
87.25¢
+0.3¢ · 24h
Implied probability 87.25%
$6.7M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market evaluates de facto control rather than official constitutional title or international recognition, focusing on who demonstrably holds primary governing authority and command over state institutions and security forces on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Because resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official government announcement or legal appointment to assess who exercises practical power, the decider must interpret broad analytical reporting if leadership transition or power-sharing dynamics are contested. The rules explicitly specify that symbolic titles do not count and allow for a resolution to No Head of State if effective control is absent.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Mojtaba Khamenei is the head of state of Iran at the end of 2026. Resolution is unusual because it relies strictly on de facto governing control over state institutions and armed forces rather than formal constitutional titles, appointments, or international recognition.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Mojtaba Khamenei demonstrably exercises primary de facto governing authority over Iran on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET, evidenced by effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making. Formal appointment or international recognition is not required, while symbolic titles or nominations lacking effective control do not qualify. The market resolves No if another individual exercises primary governing authority. If no individual holds effective governing control at the specified time, the market resolves to No Head of State. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Target evaluation time: — Authority is evaluated on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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