Russia x Ukraine energy ceasefire agreement by...?
3 live outcomes · highest priced: December 31 at 24% (−6 pts in 24h) · first close Nov 15, 2026 · $282.8K total volume
About this event
This event tracks whether Russia and Ukraine will reach an energy ceasefire agreement or a broader mutual strike suspension by specified target dates. Each market measures whether a qualifying deal is reached between market creation and that market's deadline at 11:59 PM Kyiv time.
How the outcomes relate
The markets form a sequence of target date deadlines. Because each market checks if a qualifying agreement occurs between market creation and its specific deadline, an agreement reached by an earlier date would satisfy both that date's market and any subsequent target date markets, allowing multiple markets to resolve Yes.
How it resolves
A market resolves Yes if Russia and Ukraine mutually agree to suspend strikes on at least one specific category of energy infrastructure, or agree to a broader ceasefire or truce with a general suspension of strikes, before the specified date at 11:59 PM Kyiv time. The agreement must be officially announced by both nations or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting. Unilateral pauses, informal understandings, third-party claims without confirmation, and arrangements covering only a single facility do not qualify. Otherwise, the market resolves No.
Key dates
- November 15, 2026 deadline: — Deadline at 11:59 PM Kyiv time for an energy ceasefire agreement to be reached.
- November 30, 2026 deadline: — Deadline at 11:59 PM Kyiv time for an energy ceasefire agreement to be reached.
Resolution source
Official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 24% | ▼ 6 | Med | High | |
| November 30 | 11% | — | Med | High | |
| November 15 | <1% | — | Med | High |