Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official military or government registry, leaving room for interpretation regarding troop counts and the exact operational scope.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official military or government registry, leaving room for interpretation regarding troop counts and the exact operational scope. While the criteria specify a numerical threshold of over 1,000 ground forces entering territory not previously under control, independently verifying precise force numbers and defining what counts as territory already under control during an active conflict can create disputed edge cases between a large-scale offensive and limited cross-border operations.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
7%
chance▼ −0.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Israel initiates a major ground offensive into Gaza by December 31, 2026. The resolution specifically hinges on a troop threshold of more than 1,000 ground forces entering territory not previously under Israeli control.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, at 11:59PM ET. A major ground offensive is defined as a large-scale military operation involving more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control when the offensive started. Smaller raids, special operations, and limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control are excluded and do not count. The market resolves to No if this threshold is not met by the deadline. A consensus of credible reporting decides the resolution.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·