Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Current price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$579.7K total volume · YES/NO
High gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market defines the head of state not by formal constitutional appointment or legal title, but by de facto control and primary governing authority over Iranian institutions and armed forces as of December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Because resolution explicitly disregards formal designation and international recognition, resolving an ambiguous succession crisis or fragmented leadership scenario relies entirely on evaluating qualitative indicators like military control and administrative authority. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official roster or government decree, giving the resolving entity substantial leeway to judge which claimant wielded primary practical power if governance is disputed or divided.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Sadegh Larijani will be the de facto head of state of Iran on December 31, 2026. Resolution is based on demonstrable, effective governing control and authority over state institutions and security forces, rather than formal constitutional title or international recognition.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Sadegh Larijani de facto holds and exercises primary governing authority over Iran on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET, including effective control over the armed forces, state institutions, and executive decisions. Formal appointment or foreign recognition is not required. The market resolves No if another individual holds primary governing control. If multiple people claim authority, resolution goes to the one exercising demonstrable control within Iranian territory. If no individual exercises effective governing control, the market resolves to No Head of State. Symbolic status, nominations lacking effective authority, or expired service do not qualify. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Evaluation time: — The market evaluates who holds de facto head of state authority at this exact time.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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