Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
Current price
4.65¢
−0.3¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.65%
$563.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly define what actions qualify as an arrest or detention, including physical custody, booking, voluntary surrender to a warrant, and house arrest, while explicitly ruling out unexecuted warrants, mere questioning, or indictments. The deadline is explicitly set to December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Official announcements from law enforcement or the relevant government serve as the primary source, though the decider may also rely on a consensus of credible media reporting if necessary. Overall, the market mechanics are direct, unambiguous, and align closely with standard interpretations of an arrest.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Democratic Party of Korea Leader Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement before 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying actions include physical custody by law enforcement, voluntary surrender under an arrest warrant, formal booking or processing, being handcuffed and taken to a police station, surrendering at a station or courthouse with an attorney, or being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring. Unexecuted warrants, questioning without arrest, and indictments without arrest do not count toward a Yes resolution. The market resolves to No if none of these qualifying events occur by the deadline. Official information from the arresting government and law enforcement resolves the market, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline for the arrest or detention to occur (11:59 PM ET).
Resolution source
Official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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