Netanyahu out by March 31, 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves to Yes if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel before March 31, 2027.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves to Yes if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel before March 31, 2027. A key detail to watch is the early resolution clause: an announcement of his resignation or removal will trigger an immediate Yes resolution even if the actual departure is scheduled for a future date. Official Israeli government statements and statements from Netanyahu serve as the primary source, but the decider may also rely on a consensus of credible reporting, which introduces some judgment in how news reports are weighed.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
62%
chance▲ +2.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel by March 31, 2027. An announcement of his resignation or removal before the market end date triggers an immediate Yes resolution even if it takes effect later.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and March 31, 2027 (ET). The market also immediately resolves to Yes if his resignation or removal is announced before the market's end date, regardless of when it takes effect. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Resolution is determined using official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·