Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2027?
Current price
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Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify a primary visual source with a direct URL and detail which map layers qualify, including claimed counteroffensives and reported daily gains. Participants should note that control operates on a one-hit basis: if Ukrainian control appears and persists through the next finalized daily update cycle, later loss of that territory does not invalidate a positive outcome. In addition, an actual physical transfer of control via a negotiated settlement qualifies even if the map is not updated to reflect it, whereas a purely legal announcement without physical control does not. Clear fallback sources are listed in order of priority if the primary map becomes unavailable.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of Crimea is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Rules history
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Market explained
This market measures whether Ukraine captures or establishes actual control over any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if any part of Crimea is shaded blue on the ISW map by the deadline, or if Ukraine establishes actual control via a negotiated settlement. Qualifying shading includes "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours" or "Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives," and must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle or until the next finalized update if a day is skipped. Black-shaded borders, temporary glitches, or mere announcements of de jure control do not qualify. Subsequent loss of control after capture does not negate a Yes resolution. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. The primary source is the ISW Ukraine map, with DeepStateMap as a secondary source if ISW is unavailable, and credible reporting consensus if both are permanently unavailable.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
ISW Ukraine map, with DeepStateMap as secondary fallback and a consensus of credible reporting as tertiary fallback
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