US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?
Current price
4.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.05%
$127K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market clearly defines qualifying transactions, explicitly requiring that a payment or in-kind compensation must be received before the deadline rather than merely legislated, announced, or ordered. The primary area of attention is resolution authority: resolution relies on official United States government announcements alongside a consensus of credible reporting. If a fee structure is established near the deadline, determining whether an actual payment was successfully settled and received by the cutoff time may require the decider to evaluate media reports and government disclosures without a single designated verification registry.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement. The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection. The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the United States government receives a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through or protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the US government receives at least one payment (monetary or in-kind) from a shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through or protection in the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Payments may be collected directly or via an authorized agent, contractor, or intermediary under a US fee or compensation arrangement, and any amount counts. Mere announcements, regulations, or orders without actual receipt do not count. Preexisting obligations, standard port charges, US customs duties, and payments to Iran or other parties acting independently do not qualify unless newly imposed for Hormuz transit/protection. The market resolves No if no qualifying payment is collected by the deadline. Resolution is determined by official US government announcements and a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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