Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Current price
3.15¢
−0.15¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.15%
$705.4K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution does not depend on official titles, constitutional appointment, or foreign diplomatic recognition, but on who de facto exercises primary governing authority over Iranian territory, security forces, and administrative institutions on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Because no single official government registry or institutional decree governs the outcome, determining who holds effective domestic control in a contested or transitioning political environment relies entirely on the decider evaluating a consensus of credible media reporting. Furthermore, if no single figure commands clear governing authority at that exact deadline, the market is set to resolve to a specific alternative outcome rather than standard binary options.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Reza Pahlavi will be the de facto head of state of Iran at the end of 2026. Resolution is based on demonstrating actual primary governing authority and control over the state apparatus rather than formal constitutional titles or foreign recognition.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. De facto authority requires primary governing control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decisions, regardless of official title or international recognition. Symbolic status, nomination without real power, or foreign recognition without domestic control do not count. The market resolves No if another individual holds this authority. If no single individual exercises effective governing control at that time, the market resolves to 'No Head of State'. The outcome is decided by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Evaluation time: — De facto governing authority in Iran is assessed at 12:00 PM ET.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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