Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet by December 31, 2027?
Current price
82.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 82.5%
$23.8K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide clear and specific standards for what constitutes a qualifying encounter, requiring direct personal interaction such as a conversation or handshake rather than mere shared presence. Territory and regional classifications are well-defined with references to U.S. State Department lists and explicit rules for disputed territories. However, because resolution relies entirely on a consensus of credible media reporting rather than an official registry, deciders hold significant latitude in judging whether fleeting or informal interactions meet the required threshold. Additionally, the phrasing of the question focuses negatively on whether they will not meet, whereas the rules outline a multi-outcome location structure where 'No meeting by December 31, 2027' is one specific resolving outcome.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to "No meeting by December 31, 2027" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe. A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Zelenskyy are all present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. For the purpose of this market, a meeting held on Ukrainian territory under the de facto control of Russia (e.g., Crimea) will be considered part of Russia. A meeting held in Vatican City will resolve to "Vatican City," not "Italy." If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to "Other - Europe." If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to "Other - Middle East/North Africa." If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any unlisted country that is not classified in either specified region, this market will resolve to "Other." For purposes of this market, countries' regions will be determined based on the U.S. State Department's regional classifications in the "Countries and Areas List" (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of "Europe and Eurasia" will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of "Near East (Middle East and North Africa)" will be considered to be in the Middle East/North Africa. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy will not have an in-person meeting by December 31, 2027. It is part of a multi-choice market tracking the location of their next meeting, with specific regional classifications and territorial definitions.
How it resolves
The market resolves to "No meeting by December 31, 2027" (Yes) if no qualifying meeting occurs between market creation and December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves No if a qualifying meeting occurs before the deadline. A meeting requires both individuals to be present and interact in person via an exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or sharing a room without direct interaction does not qualify. Meetings in Russian-controlled Ukrainian territory count as Russia, and Vatican City is treated separately from Italy. Unlisted locations resolve to specified "Other" regional options based on U.S. State Department classifications. A consensus of credible reporting decides the outcome.
Key dates
- Market end deadline: — Meeting must occur by 11:59 PM ET on this date to qualify.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
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