Will Israel strike 7 countries in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting or official Israeli acknowledgment rather than a single authoritative registry.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting or official Israeli acknowledgment rather than a single authoritative registry. The market contains several specific technical carve-outs that could surprise participants: strikes in the West Bank, the Gaza Strip, and Israeli-controlled territory as of year-end 2025 do not count, nor do naval shelling, artillery, surface-to-air missiles, direct FPV/ATGM strikes, or any intercepted drones or missiles even if debris impacts the ground. Determining whether certain weapon types qualify or whether an interception occurred requires subjective media interpretation.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
1%
chance▲ +0.1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Israel will launch qualifying aerial, drone, or missile strikes that impact the territory of at least seven distinct countries during 2026. Strikes within Israeli-controlled territory, the West Bank, and the Gaza Strip are explicitly excluded.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Israeli military forces initiate qualifying aerial bombs, drones, or missiles that impact the ground territory of at least 7 different countries during 2026, officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or credible reporting. Strikes on embassies or consulates count toward the host country. Territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, the West Bank, and the Gaza Strip are excluded. Intercepted munitions, surface-to-air missiles, artillery, small arms, direct FPV/ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, and ground operative actions do not qualify. The market resolves No if Israel strikes fewer than 7 qualifying countries. A consensus of credible reporting decides the resolution.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·